In networked environments, users frequently share recommendations about content, products, services, and courses of action with others. The extent to which such recommendations are successful and adopted is highly contextual, dependent on the characteristics of the sender, recipient, their relationship, the recommended item, and the medium, which makes peer influence probabilities highly heterogeneous. Accurate estimation of these probabilities is key to understanding information diffusion processes and to improving the effectiveness of viral marketing strategies. However, learning these probabilities from data is challenging; static data may capture correlations between peer recommendations and peer actions but fails to reveal influence relationships. Online learning algorithms can learn these probabilities from interventions but either waste resources by learning from random exploration or optimize for rewards, thus favoring exploration of the space with higher influence probabilities. In this work, we study learning peer influence probabilities under a contextual linear bandit framework. We show that a fundamental trade-off can arise between regret minimization and estimation error, characterize all achievable rate pairs, and propose an uncertainty-guided exploration algorithm that, by tuning a parameter, attains any pair within this trade-off. Our experiments on semi-synthetic network datasets show the advantages of our method over static methods and contextual bandits that ignore this trade-off.

We propose a detailed analysis of the online-learning problem for Independent Cascade (IC) models under node-level feedback. These models have widespread applications in modern social networks. Existing works for IC models have only shed light on edge-level feedback models, where the agent knows the explicit outcome of every observed edge. Little is known about node-level feedback models, where only combined outcomes for sets of edges are observed; in other words, the realization of each edge is censored. This censored information, together with the nonlinear form of the aggregated influence probability, make both parameter estimation and algorithm design challenging. We establish the first confidence-region result under this setting. We also develop an online algorithm achieving a cumulative regret of $\mathcal{O}( \sqrt{T})$, matching the theoretical regret bound for IC models with edge-level feedback.

As the field of machine learning for combinatorial optimization advances, traditional problems are resurfaced and readdressed through this new perspective. The overwhelming majority of the literature focuses on small graph problems, while several real-world problems are devoted to large graphs. Here, we focus on two such problems that are related: influence estimation, a \#P-hard counting problem, and influence maximization, an NP-hard problem. We develop GLIE, a Graph Neural Network (GNN) that inherently parameterizes an upper bound of influence estimation and train it on small simulated graphs. Experiments show that GLIE can provide accurate predictions faster than the alternatives for graphs 10 times larger than the train set. More importantly, it can be used on arbitrary large graphs for influence maximization, as the predictions can rank effectively seed sets even when the accuracy deteriorates. To showcase this, we propose a version of a standard Influence Maximization (IM) algorithm where we substitute traditional influence estimation with the predictions of GLIE.We also transfer GLIE into a reinforcement learning model that learns how to choose seeds to maximize influence sequentially using GLIE's hidden representations and predictions. The final results show that the proposed methods surpasses a previous GNN-RL approach and perform on par with a state-of-the-art IM algorithm.

Online influence maximization has attracted much attention as a way to maximize influence spread through a social network while learning the values of unknown network parameters. Most previous works focus on single-item diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a new Online Competitive Influence Maximization (OCIM) problem, where two competing items (e.g., products, news stories) propagate in the same network and influence probabilities on edges are unknown. We adapt the combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework for the OCIM problem, but unlike the non-competitive setting, the important monotonicity property (influence spread increases when influence probabilities on edges increase) no longer holds due to the competitive nature of propagation, which brings a significant new challenge to the problem. We prove that the Triggering Probability Modulated (TPM) condition for CMAB still holds, and then utilize the property of competitive diffusion to introduce a new offline oracle, and discuss how to implement this new oracle in various cases. We propose an OCIM-OIFU algorithm with such an oracle that achieves logarithmic regret. We also design an OCIM-ETC algorithm that has worse regret bound but requires less feedback and easier offline computation. Our experimental evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms.

Influence maximization (IM) is one of the most important problems in social network analysis. Its objective is to find a given number of seed nodes who maximize the spread of information through a social network. Since it is an NPhard problem, many approximate/heuristic methods have been developed, and a number of them repeats Monte Carlo (MC) simulations over and over, specifically tens of thousands of times or more, to reliably estimate the influence of a seed set, i.e., the number of infected nodes. In this work, we present an inductive machine learning method, called Mon te Carlo S imulator (MONSTOR), to predict the results of MC simulations on networks unseen during training. MONSTOR can greatly accelerate existing IM methods by replacing repeated MC simulations. In our experiments, MONSTOR achieves near-perfect accuracy on unseen real social networks with little sacrifice of accuracy in IM use cases. 1 Introduction Viral marketing via influence maximization has received considerable attention over the last two decades, as social networks have become an essential part of our daily lives. Many people connect to and acquire information from social networks on a daily basis, and thus information diffusion over such social networks is often more effective than that over conventional media, such as newspapers and television. Influence maximization (IM) is to find a certain number of seed nodes who maximize the spread of information through a social network. There exist several real-world applications where influence maximization played a key role, such as 2010 U.S. congressional elections, attempts to raise awareness about HIV among homeless youth, and so on [2, 18].

We consider the problem of \emph{influence maximization}, the problem of maximizing the number of people that become aware of a product by finding the `best' set of `seed' users to expose the product to. Most prior work on this topic assumes that we know the probability of each user influencing each other user, or we have data that lets us estimate these influences. However, this information is typically not initially available or is difficult to obtain. To avoid this assumption, we adopt a combinatorial multi-armed bandit paradigm that estimates the influence probabilities as we sequentially try different seed sets. We establish bounds on the performance of this procedure under the existing edge-level feedback as well as a novel and more realistic node-level feedback. Beyond our theoretical results, we describe a practical implementation and experimentally demonstrate its efficiency and effectiveness on four real datasets.

The central idea in designing various marketing strategies for online social networks is to identify the influencers in the network. The influential individuals induce ``word-of-mouth" effects in the network. These individuals are responsible for triggering long cascades of influence that convince their peers to perform a similar action (buying a product, for instance). Targeting these influentials usually leads to a vast spread of the information across the network. Hence it is important to identify such individuals in a network. One way to measure an individual's influencing capability on its peers is by its reach for a certain action. We formulate identifying the influencers in a network as a problem of predicting the average depth of cascades an individual can trigger. We first empirically identify factors that play crucial role in triggering long cascades. Based on the analysis, we build a model for predicting the cascades triggered by a user for an action. The model uses features like influencing capabilities of the user and their friends, influencing capabilities of the particular action and other user and network characteristics. Experiments show that the model effectively improves the predictions over several baselines.